Research
Job Market Paper
Incomplete and Endogenous Take-Up of Unemployment Insurance Benefits (with Brendan Moore)
[ Abstract | Draft Forthcoming ]
Standard models of unemployment insurance (UI) focus on how benefit generosity affects the average claim duration, while assuming perfect take-up. Yet, benefit receipt is highly incomplete with estimates of take-up among eligible workers below 50 percent in the United States. In this paper, we show take-up is an important margin of response: If benefits become more generous, more workers claim benefits in addition to claimants remaining on benefits for longer. Using a sample of likely eligible workers, we leverage a regression kink design to identify the causal effect of weekly benefit level on take-up and total benefits paid. Our results suggest a 10 percent increase in the weekly benefit leads to a 4.7 percent increase in take-up, which drives a 6.2 percent increase in total benefits paid. Previous work that focused only on claim duration did not account for this and thus underestimated the fiscal externality from raising benefit levels. These findings have important implications for policy: accounting for endogenous take-up reduces the optimal benefit level by 29 percent and lowers the value of additional spending to raise benefits by 27 percent.
Working Papers
The Benefits of Unemployment Insurance for Marginally Attached Workers (with Brendan Moore)
[ Abstract | Draft | SSRN Version ]
Existing research consistently finds that unemployment insurance (UI) benefits delay job finding with limited effects on job quality, but focuses on changes in UI generosity while holding fixed access to re-employment services. Using employer-employee matched data from Washington State and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design around the eligibility threshold for UI, we find that benefit receipt minimally delays re-employment but substantially improves labor market outcomes. UI increases cumulative hours worked by approximately 15 full-time weeks and earnings by \$14,000 in the two years following job loss, representing 37 percent and 50 percent increases, respectively. These gains are driven by improved job quality, as recipients experience longer tenure and higher wages with their next employer. Effects are larger for workers living near public employment offices, suggesting that access to re-employment services enhances search productivity. Expanding UI access by lowering the eligibility threshold is much more cost-effective than raising benefit levels or extending potential duration, as workers benefit from more stable, higher-paying re-employment that partially offsets its cost.
Barriers to Benefits: Unemployment Insurance Take-Up and Labor Market Effects (with Brendan Moore)
[ Abstract | Draft Forthcoming | AEA RCT Registration ]
Unemployment Insurance (UI) provides income support during job loss, yet take-up remains puzzlingly low, with less than half of eligible unemployed workers in the U.S. claiming benefits. We implement a large-scale field experiment among 50,000 workers in Washington State flagged in real time as likely recent job losers without a UI claim to study the causes and labor supply implications of incomplete take-up. Informational letters increased UI applications by 1.5 percentage points (an 80\% increase), with effects concentrated among low-wage workers. We attribute the treatment effects to reduced learning costs rather than improved beliefs about eligibility due to the letters' positive effect on the application rejection rate. Randomized destigmatizing letters induced more applications only among high-wage job seekers. Despite raising UI take-up, we can rule out adverse labor supply effects. We argue work-search requirements serve a dual function: motivating faster re-employment while simultaneously excluding marginal applicants who do not satisfy compliance rules. To interpret these findings and quantify the underlying frictions, we develop and estimate a structural job search model with endogenous UI take-up that rationalizes our experimental effects and informs the design of targeted UI outreach policies.
Publications
The Health Wedge and Labor Market Inequality (with Amy Finkelstein, Owen Zidar, and Eric Zwick), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2023.
[ Abstract | Published Version | NBER Working Paper | Code ]
Over half of the U.S. population receives health insurance through an employer, with employer premium contributions creating a flat “head tax” per worker, independent of their earnings. This paper develops and calibrates a stylized model of the labor market to explore how this uniquely American approach to financing health insurance contributes to labor market inequality. We consider a partial-equilibrium counterfactual in which employer-provided health insurance is instead financed by a statutory payroll tax on firms. We find that, under this counterfactual financing, in 2019 the college wage premium would have been 11 percent lower, non-college annual earnings would have been $1,700 (3 percent) higher, and non-college employment would have been nearly 500,000 higher. These calibrated labor market effects of switching from head-tax to payroll-tax financing are in the same ballpark as estimates of the impact of other leading drivers of labor market inequality, including changes in outsourcing, robot adoption, rising trade, unionization, and the real minimum wage. We also consider a separate partial-equilibrium counterfactual in which the current head-tax financing is maintained, but 2019 U.S. health care spending as a share of GDP is reduced to the Canadian share; here, we estimate that the 2019 college wage premium would have been 5 percent lower and non-college annual earnings would have been 5 percent higher. These findings suggest that health care costs and the financing of health insurance warrant greater attention in both public policy and research on U.S. labor market inequality.
Other Writing
Real Inventory Slowdowns, (with Richard Crump and David Lucca), Liberty Street Economics, (2019).
Is the Recent Tax Reform Playing a Role in the Decline of Home Sales?, (with Richard Peach), Liberty Street Economics, (2019).
To Ban or Not To Ban: Regulating For-Profit Charter Schools, Amherst College Honors Thesis, (2018).
Learning From Ferguson: Using Body Cameras and Participatory Governance to Improve Policing, (with Lucas Turner-Owens), Harvard Journal of Public African American Policy, (2015).